[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 16 issued 2336 UT on 27 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 28 09:36:11 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Very Low during 27 May
UT. The largest flare, B4.8, peaking at 1742 UT was produced
by Active Region 2548. A disappearing solar filament lifting
off after 0130 UT was detected in the H-alpha imagery in the
south-east quadrant (S10E41). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery. Expect Very Low to Low solar
activity due to a small chance for C-class flares. The solar
wind speed varied in the range 350-500 km/s. At the time of the
report it is increasing due to a coronal hole effect. The magnitude
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied in the range
3-13 nT and its component Bz was fluctuating between about -8
nT and +9 nT. There was a relatively long period, approximately
from 0847 UT to 0958 UT, when Bz was negative. For the next 24
hours expect the solar wind speed to continue increasing due
to a coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 5 12112222
Cocos Island 5 12111222
Darwin 1 10011110
Townsville 6 22112222
Learmonth 7 22122232
Alice Springs 5 12112221
Norfolk Island 4 12112112
Gingin 6 12112232
Camden 5 12112222
Canberra 4 12012121
Melbourne 7 22112232
Launceston 7 22122232
Hobart 5 22012222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
Macquarie Island 7 11034211
Casey 8 22122233
Mawson 24 44323255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 May 12 Unsettled to Active
30 May 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Globally, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled
during 27 May UT. In the Australian region the conditions were
almost quiet with periods when they reached Unsettled levels.
In the Antarctica region Active and Minor Storm levels were also
observed. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region are
expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled on 28 May UT with a
chance of Active periods. During 29-30 May UT geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be more disturbed, Unsettled to Active, and can
probably reach Minor Storm levels due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be normal to mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern
Hemisphere during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 30 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
29 May 30 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
30 May 30 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 26 May
and is current for 26-28 May. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation
were mildly depressed throughout the Australian region and near
predicted monthly values in the Antarctic region during 27 May
UT. Conditions are expected to remain mildly depressed throughout
most of the Australian region during the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 24300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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