[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 26 09:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Very Low during 25 May
UT. Active Region 2546 produced several B-class flares. However,
the largest event, B9 flare peaking approximately at 2115 UT,
was produced by AR 2548. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery. Expect Very Low to Low solar
activity due to a chance for C-class flares which may be produced
by both AR 2546 and AR 2548. The solar wind speed was fluctuating
in the vicinity of 430 km/s up to approximately 0645 UT, then
it was gradually decreasing to 360 km/s. The magnitude of the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied in the range 4-6 nT
and its component Bz was fluctuating between about -3 nT and
+4 nT. For the next 24 hours expect the solar wind speed to start
increasing due to a coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 0 01010000
Cocos Island 0 00110000
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 0 01100000
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Norfolk Island 0 01000000
Gingin 0 01000000
Camden 2 11110101
Canberra 0 01000000
Melbourne 0 01010000
Launceston 2 12010100
Hobart 0 01010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 13211100
Mawson 6 12232111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2102 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 11 Quiet to Unsettled
27 May 11 Quiet to Unsettled
28 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Globally, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during 25
May UT. Conditions reached Unsettled level in the Antarctic region.
Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region are expected
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels during 26-28 May UT and can
reach Active levels on 26 and 27 May UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere
during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 25 Depressed 10 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
27 May 25 Depressed 10 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
28 May 25 Depressed 5 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region and near predicted
monthly values in the Antarctic region during 25 May UT. Conditions
are expected to remain mildly depressed throughout most of the
Australian region during the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 72700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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