[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 25 09:30:37 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Low during 24 May UT.
Active Region 2546 produced several B-class flares, the largest
event was a C1 flare peaking at 10:20 UT. GONG Hydrogen alpha
telescopes recorded an eruptive prominence on the limb in the
northwest quadrant at 0433 UT. This prominence is not expected
to have a geoeffective component. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery. Expect solar activity
to remain Very Low with a chance for C-class flares which may
be produced by AR 2546. The solar wind speed was fluctuating
in the vicinity of 410 km/s during 24 May UT. The magnitude of
the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied in the range 4-7
nT and its component Bz was predominantly northward and fluctuating
between about -5 nT and +7 nT. For the next 24 hours expect the
solar wind speed will remain near its nominal value and late
on 25 May UT in may increase due to a coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11121000
Cocos Island 2 11121000
Darwin 1 01001101
Townsville 4 22121011
Learmonth 3 21122000
Alice Springs 2 11121000
Norfolk Island 2 11121001
Gingin 2 10122000
Camden 4 12132001
Canberra 2 01121000
Melbourne 3 11132000
Launceston 3 11132000
Hobart 3 01131000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island 2 00031000
Casey 6 23222101
Mawson 8 33223102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1112 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 5 Quiet to Unsettled
26 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
27 May 11 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Globally, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled
during 24 May UT. Conditions were Quiet in the Australian region
and reached Unsettled level in the Southern Australia and Antarctic
region. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region are expected
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 25 May and can reach Active
levels during 26-27 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere
during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
26 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
27 May 25 Depressed 5 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region and near predicted
monthly values in the Antarctic region during 24 May UT. Conditions
are expected to remain mildly depressed throughout most of the
Australian region during the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 152000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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