[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 24 09:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 98/45 95/41
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Very Low during 23 May
UT. Active Region 2546 produced several B-class flares, the largest
event was a B7 flare peaking approximately at 20:15 UT. GONG
Hydrogen alpha telescopes recorded the lift off of a small dark
filament near N18E25 approximately at 0630 UT. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. Expect solar
activity to remain Very Low with a slight chance for C-class
flares which may be produced by AR 2546. The solar wind was gradually
decreasing from 570 km/s to 410 km/s during 23 May UT. The magnitude
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied in the range
3-6 nT and the southward component Bz was fluctuating between
about -2 nT to +4 nT. For the next 24 hours expect the solar
wind speed and density to approach its nominal values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 2 01120010
Cocos Island 1 0-120010
Darwin 2 10111110
Townsville 2 11120011
Learmonth 2 02120010
Alice Springs 2 01120010
Norfolk Island 1 01110001
Gingin 2 12120010
Camden 3 11121011
Canberra 1 01120000
Melbourne 1 01120000
Launceston 2 02121000
Hobart 1 01120000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00121000
Casey 5 23221101
Mawson 10 23332131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2312 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 5 Quiet
25 May 5 Quiet
26 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Globally, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled
during 23 May UT. Conditions were Quiet in the Australian region
and reached Unsettled level in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic
conditions in the Australian region are expected to be Quiet
during 24-26 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere
during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 30 Depressed 5 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
25 May 30 Depressed 5 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
26 May 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 23 May UT.
Cocos Island was an exception: the preliminary daily T index
was near the monthly predicted value. Conditions are expected
to remain mildly depressed throughout most of the Australian
region during the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 580 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 258000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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