[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 23 09:30:26 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  Very low

Flares: B class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was very low during 22 May 
UT. Active Region 2546 produced several B class flares, the largest 
event a B5.6 flare peaking at 09:21 UT. Solar radio telescopes 
detected a Type IV radio burst during this flare. There is a 
possibility that AR 2546 will produce a weak C class flare during 
the next 2 days. GONG Hydrogen alpha telescopes recorded the 
lift off of a small dark filament near the western limb during 
21 UT. They also show a long, sinuous filament rotating across 
the central meridian in the Northern Hemisphere. The solar wind 
was about 600 km/s for most of 22 May, and is currently about 
550 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field 
(IMF) decreased from about 8 nT to 5 nT, and the southward component 
Bz has been fluctuating between about -5 nT to +5 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12232110
      Cocos Island         3   11222000
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           5   12222111
      Learmonth            5   12233000
      Alice Springs        4   22222100
      Norfolk Island       4   12222100
      Gingin               6   22232110
      Camden               6   22232111
      Canberra             5   12232100
      Melbourne            5   12232110
      Launceston           7   22233210
      Hobart               6   12233110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
      Macquarie Island     7   11243100
      Casey               10   33322231
      Mawson              15   34343222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           44   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18   3352 3341     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 May     5    Quiet
25 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Globally, geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled 
during 22 May UT. Conditions were also quiet to unsettled in 
the Australian region. The maximum Kp value was 3 and local K 
indices are currently 0 to 1. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be quiet to unsettled today, 23 May, decreasing to quiet during 
24-25 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere 
during the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 May    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      30
May      47
Jun      46

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May    40    Depressed 5 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
24 May    40    Depressed 5 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
25 May    40    Depressed 5 to 25%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed throughout the Australian region during 22 May UT. 
Cocos Island was an exception: the preliminary daily T index 
was 76 due to a 70% enhancement in plasma density at 10 UT. Conditions 
are expected to remain mildly depressed throughout most of the 
Australian region during the next 2 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   158000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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