[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 16 issued 2340 UT on 14 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 15 09:40:36 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Low levels for the UT day,
14 May, with three C-class flares observed all from active region
2543. The strongest was a C7.4, which peaked at 14/1134 UT. Expect
solar activity to remain Low with a slight chance for M-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO
C2 imagery during the last 24 hrs. The solar wind varied from
~~300 km/s to around 390 km/s during the past 24 hours. The Bz
component of the IMF was mainly weakly southwards, however over
the last 6 hours had dip down to -13nT and continues to vary
between 0nT and -10nT. Over the next 24 hours expect the solar
wind to enhance in response to a large positive polarity northern
hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geoeffective location on
the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 20 Active
16 May 20 Active
17 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 14 May and
is current for 15-16 May. The geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
to Unsettled for the UT day, 14 May. On UT days 15-16 May, the
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled and
at times could reach minor storm levels. This is due to the expected
arrival of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and subsequent
high speed solar wind streams associated with the approaching
large northern hemisphere coronal hole. There is chance the aurora
will be visible from high magnetic latitude regions of Australia
(Tasmania and some parts of Victoria) on the local night of 15
May. Note due to system problem no station K-indices or pc3-indices
are available at this time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
16 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
17 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Expect near normal HF conditions to mildly depressed
and depressed conditions over the next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 May 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
17 May 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 24 was issued
on 14 May and is current for 16-17 May. Near predicted to mildly
depressed conditions were observed in the Australian/NZ regions
during the UT day of 14 May. Expect near mildly depressed to
monthly predicted MUFs for the UT day 15 May in the Australian
and Antarctic regions. Stronger depression in HF conditions could
occur on 16-17 May due to the forecasted active conditions associated
with the approaching coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 35300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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