[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 16 issued 2350 UT on 15 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 16 09:50:45 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Low levels for the UT day,
15 May, with several C-class flares observed from active regions
2542(N10W64), 2543(S05W69), and 2544(N21W01). The strongest flare
was a C4.9, which peaked at 15/0409 UT from active region 2543.
The more interesting flare was a C3.2 long duration flare (2hrs
14min). H-alpha showed the flare to have parallel ribbon characteristics.
LASCO C2 imagery showed an associated CME beginning at 1536UT.
GOES proton flux associated with the CME has increased to 2 proton
flux units at ~2100UT, still below event level. CME does not
appear to be Earthward bound. Expect solar activity to remain
Low with a slight chance for M-class flares. The solar wind varied
from ~390 km/s to around 500 km/s during the past 24 hours and
is currently near 450 km/s. The total B field increased to near
14 nT at the beginning of the UT day with a gradual decrease
over the following hours and the Bz component of the IMF varied
between +12/-10nT over the last 24 hours. For the next 24 hours
expect the solar wind to remain enhanced in response to a large
positive polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole now in a geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 12 22205322
Casey 13 23333241
Mawson 22 44433352
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3223 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 20 Active
17 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 14 May and
is current for 15-16 May. The geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
to Active for the UT day, 15 May. On UT days 16-17 May, the geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly Unsettled with periods of
Active to Minor Storm levels particular at higher latitudes.
Expect a return to mostly Quiet conditions on 18 May. Geomagnetic
activity is due to the arrival of the co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) and subsequent high speed solar wind streams associated
with the large northern hemisphere coronal hole. There is chance
the aurora will be visible from high magnetic latitude regions
of Australia (Tasmania and some parts of Victoria) on the local
night of 16 May. Note that due to system problem no station K-indices
or pc3-indices are unavailable at this time for the Australian region.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mildly depressed to depressed conditions over the next two to
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
17 May 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
18 May 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 24 was issued
on 14 May and is current for 16-17 May. Near predicted to mildly
depressed conditions were observed in the Australian/NZ regions
during the UT day of 15 May. Expect near mildly depressed to
depressed conditions for the UT day 16-17 May in the Australian
and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 40200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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