[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 16 issued 2336 UT on 13 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 14 09:36:43 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
13 May, with only B-class flares. The strongest B7.4 was from
Region 2544, which peaked at 13/1616 UT. The 2-day outlook (14-15
May) is for low solar activity with chance of C-class flares.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery
during the last 24 hrs. The solar wind had dropped gradually
from 400 km/s to 340 km/s during the past 24 hours. The Bz component
of the IMF was weakly southwards, near -2 nT and Bt was steady
at around 6 nT throughout the UT day 13 May. The outlook for
14 May is for the solar winds to continue to trend towards ambient
levels. On late UT day 15 May, the solar wind is expected to
enhance in response to a large positive polarity northern hemisphere
coronal hole moving into a geoeffective location on the solar
disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 5 11222211
Cocos Island 2 1011110-
Darwin 4 112121--
Townsville 5 1122221-
Learmonth 4 102122--
Alice Springs 4 1022220-
Norfolk Island 3 012120--
Culgoora 6 22222221
Gingin 3 0011221-
Camden 4 012221--
Canberra 4 0022221-
Melbourne 4 002221--
Launceston 6 01232---
Hobart 4 002222--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 7 0033321-
Casey 7 133211--
Mawson 12 423321--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 4 Quiet
15 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 May 21 Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during
the last 24 hours (13 May). The outlook for UT day 14 May is
for geomagnetic conditions to be mostly quiet and at times unsettled.
On UT days 15-16 May, the geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly unsettled and at times could reach minor storm levels.
This is due to the expected arrival of the co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) and subsequent high speed solar wind streams associated
with the approaching large northern hemisphere coronal hole.
There is chance the aurora will be visible from high magnetic
latitude regions of Australia (Tasmania and some parts of Victoria)
on the local night of 15 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Expect near normal HF conditions for the next two days
with possible periods of minor to mild depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 35 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 35 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near predicted to mildly depressed conditions were observed
in the Australian/NZ regions during the UT day of 13 May. Expect
near mildly depressed to monthly predicted MUFs for the next
two days (14 - 15 May) in the Australian and Antarctic regions.
Stronger depression in HF conditions could occur on 16 May due
to the forecasted active conditions associated with the approaching
coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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