[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 10 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 11 09:30:31 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 92/37 98/45
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day 10 May. No
SOHO images are available since 9 May, 0606 UT. However, GONG
H-alpha imagery shows no erupting filaments for 10 May. Solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels during the
next three days with a slight chance of isolated C-class event.
The solar wind stream remained elevated over the last 24 h, decreasing
from 650 to above 550 km/s. The Bz component of IMF varied between
+/-5 nT during the same period. The solar wind speed is expected
to gradually decrease to nominal levels during next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated periods of Active conditions.
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 12 33333222
Cocos Island 5 22212111
Darwin 7 22223121
Townsville 12 33333222
Learmonth 14 33334232
Alice Springs 11 33333121
Norfolk Island 10 23333211
Culgoora 10 23332222
Gingin 14 33334232
Camden 13 33433222
Canberra 13 33433221
Melbourne 16 33444222
Launceston 16 33444222
Hobart 14 33443221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 25 34555311
Casey 14 44332222
Mawson 49 56544266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 30 6433 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 12 Unsettled
12 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 8 May and is
current for 9-11 May. Geomagnetic activity on 10 May was Quiet
to Unsettled with isolated periods of Active conditions due to
an elevated solar wind speed. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions
with isolated Active periods, particularly in southern regions
of Australia and Antarctica on 11 May. During 12 and 13 May geomagnetic
activity is expected to wane to mostly Quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly depressed to depressed conditions were observed
in mid and high latitudes during the last 24 h. Further degradation
in HF conditions is possible for 11 May. As geomagnetic activity
returns to Quiet, expect HF conditions to improve over the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
12 May 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 May 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 8 May
and is current for 9-11 May. Mildly depressed to depressed conditions
were observed in the Australian/NZ regions during the UT day
of 10 May. Degradation in HF conditions MUFs is possible for
11 May, especially over the southern Australian regions and Antarctica.
As geomagnetic activity returns to Quiet, expect HF conditions
to improve over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 644 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 237000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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