[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 16 issued 2348 UT on 09 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 10 09:48:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day 09 May. However,
there were several minor flares (B-class). The B9.4-class flare
peaking at 5:23 UT was associated with an erupting filament.
No SOHO images are available for that period at the time of this
report, pending further analysis. Solar activity is expected
to remain at Very Low levels during the next three days with
a slight chance of isolated C-class event. The solar wind stream
remained elevated over the last 24 h, increasing from ~600 to
above 640 km/s. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-6 nT
during the same period. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated during the UT day of 10 May due to the coronal hole
remaining geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 15 43233333
Cocos Island 12 42333222
Darwin 10 32233222
Townsville 13 33233323
Learmonth 18 43334333
Alice Springs 14 43233323
Norfolk Island 11 33233222
Culgoora 15 333-3333
Gingin 20 42245333
Camden 15 43233333
Canberra 15 43233333
Melbourne 18 43244333
Launceston 19 43344333
Hobart 17 43243333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 37 54465443
Casey 35 43444723
Mawson 87 75454487
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 60 6665 4665
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 15 Unsettled to Active
11 May 12 Unsettled
12 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 8 May and is
current for 9-11 May. Geomagnetic activity at the beginning of
the UT day of 9 May was Active over the Australian region due
to an elevated solar wind speed. However, activity subsided to
mostly Unsettled conditions for the remainder of the UT day.
Expect mostly Unsettled conditions with isolated Active periods,
particularly in southern regions of Australia and Antarctica
on 10 May. During 11 and 12 May geomagnetic activity is expected
to wane to mostly Quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly depressed to depressed conditions were observed
in mid and high latitudes during the last 24 h. Further degradation
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs is possible for 10 May,
especially at mid and high latitude locations as geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain enhanced.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
11 May 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
12 May 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 8 May
and is current for 9-11 May. Mildly depressed to depressed conditions
were observed in the Australian/NZ regions during the UT day
of 9 May. Further degradation in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs is likely for 10 May, especially over the southern Australian
regions and Antarctica.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 558 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 390000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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