[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 9 09:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the last
24 hours. As expected, solar wind stream gained strength during
this period. Solar wind speed increased from ~460 to above 700
km/s today (8 May). The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-10
nT during most parts of the UT day today, staying southwards
for relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity may be
expected to stay at very low levels during the next three days
(9, 10 and 11 May) with some possibility of isolated C-class
event. The coronal hole effect may keep the solar wind stream
strong for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Unsettled to
Minor Storm with some Major Storm periods
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 38 55545543
Cocos Island 22 44344433
Darwin 30 54445443
Townsville 33 54445543
Learmonth 46 55546643
Alice Springs 36 55445543
Norfolk Island 30 44544543
Culgoora 63 6654656-
Gingin 38 44446643
Camden 43 55555553
Canberra 33 44545543
Launceston 49 55556554
Hobart 42 45555554
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 107 57667865
Casey 24 44434443
Mawson 134 78855677
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 39
Planetary 65
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 4112 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 35 Active to minor storm, isolated periods of major
storm possible
10 May 35 Active to minor storm, isolated periods of major
storm possible
11 May 30 Unsettled to active, isolated periods of minor
storm possible
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 6 May and is
current for 7-9 May. As expected, geomagnetic activity increased
to minor storm levels on 8 May with isolated major storm periods.
Due to a coronal hole effect nearly similar conditions may be
expected on 9 and 10 May. Geomagnetic activity may start to show
some weakening from 11 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
10 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
11 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in midlatitude
regions today. Further degradation in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs are possible from 9 to 11 May, especially at mid and
high latitude locations as geomagnetic activity is expected to
remain enhanced on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
35%
10 May 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
35%
11 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 22 was issued
on 6 May and is current for 7-9 May. Minor to mild MUF depressions
were observed in the Australian/NZ regions today. Further degradation
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs are possible from 9
to 11 May in the region as geomagnetic activity is expected to
remain enhanced on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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