[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 11 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 12 09:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 97/44 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 11 May.
No SOHO images are available for 11 May. However, Learmonth Solar
Observatory has reported three erupting filaments for 11 May.
The first was a 15 degree filament erupting at 0211-0306UT centred
at N16W29. The second was a 11 degree filament erupting at 0411-0456UT
centred at N09W37. The third was a 16 degree filament erupting
at 0701-0736UT centred at N04W30. All three filaments were in
geoeffective locations and have the potential to be geoeffective,
pending further analysis when SOHO C2/C3 imagery becomes available.
Note SDO AIA 171/304 imagery show a filament erupting beginning
approximately 0911UT heading to the Northwest which is not expected
to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very
Low levels during the next three days with a slight chance of
isolated C-class flares. The solar wind stream decreased from
~~600km/s to near 400km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component
of IMF varied between +3/-4 nT during the same period. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain at nominal levels (~400km/s)
for the next 3 days based on previous rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 2 22100011
Learmonth 1 21000001
Alice Springs 2 22000001
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 1 21000001
Camden 3 21111111
Canberra 1 21000001
Melbourne 2 22100101
Launceston 2 22100001
Hobart 2 22000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
Macquarie Island 2 22001000
Casey 7 23311112
Mawson 19 43322245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 4433 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 4 Quiet
13 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity on 11 May was Quiet. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions for UT day 12 May and Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 13-14 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
13 May Normal Normal Normal
14 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect a return to normal HF conditions for the next
three days with possible periods of minor to mild depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 May 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
14 May 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: Near predicted to Mildly depressed and depressed conditions
were observed in the Australian/NZ regions during the UT day
of 11 May. Expect a return to near predicted MUFs for the next
three days with possible periods of minor to mild depressions
in the Australian and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 594 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 229000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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