[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 29 10:30:29 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Low

Flares: C class flare

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 28 Mar UT and is expected 
to be very low during the next 2 days. AR 2524 (N14W88) produced 
the largest X ray flare of the day, a C2 event peaking at 02:28 
UT. A weak C class flare might occur during the next 2 days. 
GONG H alpha images recorded a DSF from the SW quadrant (S19W31) 
during 05 UT. SOHO LASCO coronograms did not record a significant 
Earthward directed CME. The Earth is under the influence of fast 
wind emanating from CH 724. The solar wind speed increased from 
about 400 km/s to 500 km/s during 28 Mar. The IMF Bz component 
has been predominantly northward, fluctuating in the range of 
about -6 nT to +6 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23111122
      Cocos Island         4   22111021
      Darwin               6   23111122
      Townsville           7   23111123
      Learmonth            5   22111122
      Alice Springs        6   23111122
      Norfolk Island       5   23101022
      Culgoora             7   23111123
      Gingin               4   22111022
      Camden               7   23111123
      Canberra             6   22111123
      Launceston           7   23111123
      Hobart               7   23111123    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   12101022
      Casey               14   44422122
      Mawson              18   25322135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   3222 2432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Mar     6    Quiet
31 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled in the 
Australian region during 28 Mar UT. The Planetary Kp index reached 
4 during 03-06 UT due to the arrival of a Co-rotating Interacting 
Region ahead of fast solar wind. Although the solar speed has 
increased to about 500 km/s and is expected to remain elevated 
today, the IMF has been predominantly northward. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled today, 
decreasing to quiet during 30 Mar.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values (T=50) today, 29 Mar, though 
slightly enhanced (T+10) in the Southern Hemisphere and slightly 
depressed (T-10) in the Northern Hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Mar    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were slightly 
enhanced during 28 Mar UT and they are expected to be slightly 
enhanced today, 29 Mar.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    7.5 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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