[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 27 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 28 10:30:30 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 27 March. There are 
two numbered regions on the solar disc, 2526(S03E37) and 2524(N15W70) 
neither is expected to produce significant solar activity. There 
is a slight chance for C-class flares over the next 3 days. LASCO 
C2 imagery showed no Earthward CMEs between 27/0000UT and 27/2000UT, 
though there was an erupting prominence reported by Holloman 
Solar Observatory between 1956UT and 2004UT at N20W90. The solar 
wind stream increase from 380 to 420 km/s with an increase in 
temperature, density, Bt over the last 24 hours, characteristic 
of a corotating interaction region. The solar wind density is 
currently near 10 particles per cubic cm. The IMF Bz component 
was on average positive with several excursions into the negative, 
reaching a minimum of -9nT. Expect the solar wind to increase 
over the next several hours with Earth's entry into a high speed 
solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole. Based on previous 
rotation ACE data the solar wind will likely increase to 450 
to 500 km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23322322
      Cocos Island         9   23322321
      Darwin              10   23332321
      Townsville          12   23432322
      Learmonth           11   33332321
      Norfolk Island       7   22322221
      Culgoora            10   23322322
      Gingin               9   32322321
      Canberra            10   23322322
      Launceston          12   23422332
      Hobart              10   23322322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    11   22333331
      Casey               14   34422322
      Mawson              15   33332433

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0010 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar    12    Unsettled
29 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over 
Australian region. The Antarctic region was Active to Quiet. 
Expect geomagnetic activity to increase to Unsettled to Active 
levels with isolated periods of Minor Storm levels over the next 
24 hours due to the influence of a high speed solar wind stream.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect degraded HF conditions at higher latitudes due 
to an increase in geomagnetic activity

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Mar    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values observed in the 
Australian region on 27 March. Expect near predicted monthly 
values for the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    41700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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