[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 27 10:30:30 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 26 March. There are 
two numbered regions on the solar disc, 2526(S05E46) and 2524(N16W56) 
neither is expected to produce significant solar activity. There 
is a slight chance for C-class flares over the next 3 days. LASCO 
C2 imagery showed no Earthward CMEs between 26/0000UT and 26/2048UT, 
though there was a five degree erupting filament reported by 
Holloman Solar Observatory between 1400UT and 1600UT centered 
at approximately N26W45. The solar wind stream showed a steady 
decrease from 450 to 360 km/s with and gradual decrease in temperature. 
The solar wind density has stepped up from 1-3 particles per 
cubic cm to near 20 particles per cubic cm over the last 24 hours. 
The IMF Bz component was mostly positive with an increase in 
Bt from 4 to 10nT over the same period . Expect the solar wind 
to gradually decrease to just over 300 km/s until late in the 
UT day when Earth is expected to enter a high speed solar wind 
stream associated with a coronal hole. Based on previous rotation 
ACE data the solar wind will likely increase to around 450 km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   00001011
      Cocos Island         0   00000011
      Darwin               2   01101012
      Townsville           2   11001111
      Learmonth            0   00000000
      Norfolk Island       0   00001010
      Culgoora             1   11001001
      Gingin               1   00001011
      Canberra             0   00001001
      Launceston           2   11101011
      Hobart               0   00101000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                5   23221001
      Mawson               4   11110113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           43   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   3101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar    12    Unsettled
28 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over Australian region. 
The Antarctic region was Unsettled to Quiet. Expect similar conditions 
until late in the UT day, 27 March, when conditions are expect 
to reach Active levels due to a recurrent coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Mar    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar    45    Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar    45    Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar    45    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values observed in the 
Australian region on 26 March. Expect near predicted monthly 
values for the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 525 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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