[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 26 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 88/32 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 25 March. There are
two active regions on the solar disc, 2526(S04E65) and 2524(N15W38).
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next 3 days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. Yesterday's erupting
filament does not appear to be geoeffective, available LASCO
C2/C3 imagery showed no Earthward CMEs between 24/0000UT and
25/1436UT. Solar wind stream showed a steady decrease from 550
to 420 km/s with and gradual decrease in temperature and steady
density of 1-4 particles per cubic cm. The IMF Bz component was
positive on average and varied between +/-3nT over the same period.
The IMF Bt remain around 4 to 5nT. Expect the solar wind to remain
around 400 km/s over the next 24 hours. Expect an increase in
the solar wind late on 27 March based on GOES SXI imagery showing
a recurrent coronal extending from the northern pole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21111100
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 3 21111200
Townsville 5 22122211
Learmonth 3 22111200
Norfolk Island 2 21011001
Culgoora 3 21111101
Gingin 4 32111200
Canberra 2 21111100
Launceston 5 32221101
Hobart 2 21111100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 22011000
Casey 9 34321201
Mawson 16 53232233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 6 Quiet
27 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
28 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Mostly Quiet over Australian
region. The Antarctic region ranged from Active to Quiet. Expect
similar conditions until late on the 27 March when conditions
are expect to reach Active levels due to a recurrent coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values observed in the
Australian region on 25 March. Expect near predicted monthly
values for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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