[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 16 issued 2339 UT on 24 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri Mar 25 10:39:45 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar:  87/30

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              90/34              92/37

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on 24 March. There 
are two active regions on the solar disc, 2526(S05E74) and 2524(N16W28). 
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next 3 days 
with a slight chance of C-class flares. GONG H-alpha images showed 
an eleven degree filament(N16W05) erupting at approximately 24/1000-1100UT 
in the northward direction which is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Note, available LASCO C2/C3 imagery showed no CMEs between 24/0000UT 
and 24/1348UT. Yesterday's flare/CME is unlikely to be geoeffective 
based on LASCO C2 imagery. Solar wind stream showed a steady 
increase from 450 to 550 km/s with and gradual increase in temperature 
and decrease in density, consistent with characteristics of a 
weak coronal hole. The IMF Bz component was positive on average 
and varied between +6 and -3 nT over the same period. As solar 
wind speed increased the IMF Bt increased to near 10 nT, but 
than returned to near 5nT. Expect the solar wind to gradually 
decrease over the next 24 hours, but stay in the 550 to 450 km/s 
range. Expect an increase in the solar wind late on 27 March 
based on GOES SXI imagery showing a recurrent coronal extending 
from the northern pole. The coronal appears to be stronger this 
rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11121211
      Cocos Island         2   10111210
      Darwin               4   11221211
      Townsville           4   11121212
      Learmonth            4   21121211
      Norfolk Island       2   11020111
      Culgoora             4   11121112
      Gingin               4   20121211
      Canberra             2   10121101
      Launceston           5   21221112
      Hobart               2   20111101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   10110001
      Casey               11   33432112
      Mawson              14   52431221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           34   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   1332 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar     6    Quiet
27 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over Australian region. 
The Antarctic region ranged from Active to Quiet. Expect Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions in the Australian region for the next 
3 days with a possibility of an increase to Active levels late 
on the 27 March.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Mar    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                25%
26 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions noted in the Australian 
region on 24 March. Expect Similar conditions today and a return 
to near predicted monthly values on the following two days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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