[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 16 issued 2345 UT on 23 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 24 10:45:46 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Low levels on 23 March, with a
C1.1 class flare produced by AR 2524 (N15W15) at 0354 UT. Expect
solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days. LASCO
C2/C3 imagery showed a CME which is associated with this flare;
it became visible at 0500 UT on 23 March at the North-East limb.
It is unlikely to be geoeffective, pending further analysis.
No other CMEs were found in LASCO imagery. Solar wind stream
remained steady with densities varying in the range 3-20 particles
per cubic cm. The solar wind speed was slowly increasing from
380 to 480 km/s; currently 440 km/s. The IMF Bz component was
positive on average and varied between +7 and -5 nT over the
same period. It was negative from 0300 to 0700 UT, reaching values
of -5 nT. The IMF Bt was 5-10 nT. Expect similar conditions for
the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22221122
Cocos Island 5 22221121
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 5 22221121
Norfolk Island 5 22221021
Culgoora 6 22221122
Gingin 5 21221122
Canberra 5 12221112
Launceston 7 22321122
Hobart 5 12221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 12331011
Casey 9 23332122
Mawson 15 23533213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2342212-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 4 Quiet
25 Mar 4 Quiet
26 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over Australian
region. The Antarctic region was mostly Quiet to Unsettled. Expect
mostly Quiet conditions for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in the Northern
and Southern Australian region on 23 March during local night.
Expect near predicted monthly values with a possibility of minor
depressions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 75000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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