[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 23 10:30:31 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on 22 March. Expect
solar activity to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days
with a chance of C-class flares. LASCO C2/C3 imagery showed no
Earthward CMEs. Solar wind stream remained steady with densities
varying in the range 3-20 particles per cubic cm. The solar wind
speed varied in the range 380-450 km/s; currently 400 km/s. The
IMF Bz component was positive on average and varied between +5
and -5 nT over the same period. The IMF Bt was 3-7 nT. Expect
similar conditions for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22221001
Cocos Island 5 32221001
Darwin 5 32221001
Townsville 7 32232011
Learmonth 6 32132001
Norfolk Island 4 21221011
Culgoora 4 22221011
Gingin 3 21121001
Canberra 4 22221001
Launceston 5 22231002
Hobart 5 22231001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 11340000
Casey 12 34431012
Mawson 16 34232125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2123 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 4 Quiet
24 Mar 4 Quiet
25 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet for Australian
region. In the Antarctic region there were isolated periods of
Active levels. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next 3
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect MUFs to be slightly less than normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
30%
24 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
30%
25 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in almost
all areas in the Australian region on 22 March. Nearly similar
conditions are expected for the next three days (23 to 25 March).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 52700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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