[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 16 issued 2331 UT on 29 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 30 10:31:11 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Very low

Flares: B class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 29 Mar UT and 
it is expected to remain very low during the next 2 days. AR 
2524 produced several low level B class flares on the western 
limb. CH 725 is located near the equator and has crossed the 
central meridian. A CIR ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 
725 may impact Earth during 2-3 April. For now, the Earth is 
still under the influence of fast wind emanating from CH 724. 
The solar wind speed reached about 585 km/s during 29 March and 
is presently about 530 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF is about 
5 nT and the Bz component fluctuated between about -3 nT and 
+5 nT during the past 12 hours. The solar wind speed is expected 
to decrease during the next 2 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22232311
      Cocos Island         6   22222300
      Darwin               6   22222301
      Townsville           9   32233211
      Learmonth            9   32232311
      Alice Springs        7   22232300
      Norfolk Island       6   22232200
      Culgoora             9   32232311
      Gingin               8   32232310
      Camden               9   23232311
      Canberra             8   22232311
      Launceston          12   33242321
      Hobart               8   22232311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    14   32254211
      Casey               11   34332211
      Mawson              28   45533335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              57   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           78   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   1421 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar     6    Quiet
01 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled in the 
Australian region during 29 Mar UT. The planetary Kp index was 
3 during 00-12 UT due to the influence of fast solar wind. Geomagnetic 
conditions are currently quiet and are expected to be quiet with 
brief unsettled intervals during the next 2 days. A minor storm 
(G1) is possible during 2-3 April due to the arrival of a CIR 
ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 725.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values today, 30 Mar, though slightly 
enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere and slightly depressed in 
the Northern Hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Mar    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values during 30-31 Mar UT.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 478 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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