[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 15 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 16 10:30:29 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels over the last 
24 hours. Today's largest event was a C1.2 flare from region 
2521(N19W21). This flare peaked at 0929UT. Due to the coronal 
hole effect solar wind speed stayed high around 550 km/s by 0900 
UT and then showed gradual decrease to under 450 km/s by 2300UT. 
The IMF Bz component varied mostly between +4/-7nT during this 
time, staying southwards for relatively longer periods. Solar 
wind stream is expected to remain strong on 16 and then gradually 
weaken over the following two days thereafter. Very low levels 
of solar activity, with some possibility of isolated C class 
activity, may be expected from 16 to 18 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to active 
with isolated minor storm periods

Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33332332
      Cocos Island         7   22221232
      Darwin              11   33322232
      Townsville          13   33332332
      Learmonth           15   33333342
      Norfolk Island      10   23331232
      Culgoora            12   23332332
      Gingin              15   33333342
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra            12   23332332
      Launceston          19   33443343
      Hobart              17   33443332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    26   33563332
      Casey               20   44342343
      Mawson              54   44542385

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Alice Springs        6   (Quiet)
      Gingin              89   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            61   (Active)
      Melbourne           84   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   1221 1245     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar    20    Unsettled to Active
17 Mar    12    Unsettled
18 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 14 March and 
is current for 15-16 Mar. Geomagnetic activity increased to active 
levels with isolated minor storm periods due to the effect of 
a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 
This coronal hole effect may continue to raise geomagnetic activity 
to active levels on 16 March. Geomagnetic activity is then expected 
to gradually decline to unsettled through to quiet levels during 
17 and 18 March as the coronal hole effect is expected to weaken 
that way.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed during the 
last 24 hours. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions 
and depressions in MUFs may be observed, especially on high latitude 
locations, on 16 March in response to the expectations of continued 
elevations in the geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF 
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 17 and 18 
March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Mar    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar    50    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 14 March 
and is current for 15-16 Mar. Mostly normal HF conditions were 
observed in the Aus/NZ regions during the last 24 hours. Minor 
to moderate degradations in HF conditions and depressions in 
MUFs may be observed in this region on 16 March in response to 
the expectations of continued elevations in the geomagnetic activity 
levels on this day. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on 17 and 18 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    61300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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