[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 15 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 16 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels over the last
24 hours. Today's largest event was a C1.2 flare from region
2521(N19W21). This flare peaked at 0929UT. Due to the coronal
hole effect solar wind speed stayed high around 550 km/s by 0900
UT and then showed gradual decrease to under 450 km/s by 2300UT.
The IMF Bz component varied mostly between +4/-7nT during this
time, staying southwards for relatively longer periods. Solar
wind stream is expected to remain strong on 16 and then gradually
weaken over the following two days thereafter. Very low levels
of solar activity, with some possibility of isolated C class
activity, may be expected from 16 to 18 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to active
with isolated minor storm periods
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 33332332
Cocos Island 7 22221232
Darwin 11 33322232
Townsville 13 33332332
Learmonth 15 33333342
Norfolk Island 10 23331232
Culgoora 12 23332332
Gingin 15 33333342
Camden - --------
Canberra 12 23332332
Launceston 19 33443343
Hobart 17 33443332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
Macquarie Island 26 33563332
Casey 20 44342343
Mawson 54 44542385
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 89 (Minor storm)
Canberra 61 (Active)
Melbourne 84 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 1221 1245
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 20 Unsettled to Active
17 Mar 12 Unsettled
18 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 14 March and
is current for 15-16 Mar. Geomagnetic activity increased to active
levels with isolated minor storm periods due to the effect of
a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
This coronal hole effect may continue to raise geomagnetic activity
to active levels on 16 March. Geomagnetic activity is then expected
to gradually decline to unsettled through to quiet levels during
17 and 18 March as the coronal hole effect is expected to weaken
that way.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed during the
last 24 hours. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be observed, especially on high latitude
locations, on 16 March in response to the expectations of continued
elevations in the geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 17 and 18
March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 50 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 14 March
and is current for 15-16 Mar. Mostly normal HF conditions were
observed in the Aus/NZ regions during the last 24 hours. Minor
to moderate degradations in HF conditions and depressions in
MUFs may be observed in this region on 16 March in response to
the expectations of continued elevations in the geomagnetic activity
levels on this day. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on 17 and 18 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 61300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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