[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 15 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at very low levels over the
last 24 hours. No significant solar flare was observed during
this period. Solar wind speed stayed between 350 and 400 km/s
by 1600 UT and then, as per the previous anticipations, the speed
showed gradual increase to around 600 km/s by 2300UT. It was
due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
coronal hole. The IMF Bz component stayed close to normal value
by 1600 UT and then showed fluctuations, mostly between +/-12nT.
The solar stream is expected to remain strong on 15 and most
parts of 16 March due to the coronal hole effect. Very low levels
of solar activity, with some possibility of isolated C class
activity, may be expected from 15 to 17 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 11101244
Cocos Island 8 11110343
Darwin 9 11111343
Townsville 11 21111344
Learmonth 10 11101344
Norfolk Island 6 00101243
Culgoora 7 11101234
Gingin 8 11000244
Camden 3 11------
Canberra 6 10001234
Launceston 8 11111234
Hobart 7 01101234
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 00211023
Casey 10 12321134
Mawson 19 42222236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 68 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0101 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 30 Active to Minor Storm
16 Mar 25 Active down to unsettled
17 Mar 15 Unsettled then quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 13 March and
is current for 14-16 Mar. Geomagnetic activity increased to active
levels during late hours on 14 March due to the arrival of a
high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. This
coronal hole effect may result in geomagnetic activity rising
up to minor storm levels on 15 and at times on 16 March. Mostly
Active declining to Unsettled conditions are likely on 16 March.
Activity may further decline from Unsettled to Quiet levels on
17 March. In the IPS magnetometer data for 14 Mar, a weak (11nT)
impulse was observed at 1716UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
16 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
17 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last
24 hours. Minor to significant degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be observed on 15 and 16 March in
response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. HF conditions
may gradually return to mostly normal levels by 17 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 30 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Mar 40 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed in the Aus/NZ regions
during the last 24 hours. Minor to significant degradations in
HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be observed in this
region on 15 and 16 March in response to anticipated elevated
geomagnetic activity. HF conditions may gradually return to mostly
normal levels by 17 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 64800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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