[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 13 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 14 10:30:26 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
SDO imagery observed an erupting prominence on the NE limb ~1930UT. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available SOHO LASCO 
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for 
14-16 March. Solar wind speed continued decreasing to be around 
400 km/s at the time of this report. The IMF Bz was predominately 
northward during the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed is expected 
to remain at nominal levels day one, then gradually increase 
on days two and three as a large recurrent southern hemisphere 
coronal hole moves into a geoeffective location.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12210001
      Cocos Island         2   12200000
      Darwin               2   12210001
      Townsville           2   12210001
      Learmonth            3   12221000
      Norfolk Island       3   12210011
      Culgoora             2   12210001
      Gingin               3   22210000
      Camden               4   13211011
      Canberra             3   03210001
      Launceston           5   13311001
      Hobart               4   03310001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   02202000
      Casey               16   35522001
      Mawson               9   23222204

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           63   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   2322 1341     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar     7    Quiet
15 Mar    30    Quiet to Minor Storm
16 Mar    20    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the Australian 
region during last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain 
mostly Quiet for the next 24 hours. Quiet to Active conditions 
with possible Minor Storm periods for 15-16 March due to coronal 
hole effects. There is a chance that aurora may be visible from 
high magnetic latitudes regions of Australia, including Tasmania 
and some parts of Victoria on the local nights of 15-16 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Mar      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair
16 Mar      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Mar    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar    30    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Mar    30    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed during the last 24 hours. 
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. 
Degradations in HF conditions may be observed from 15 March in 
response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 500 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   159000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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