[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 13 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 14 10:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
SDO imagery observed an erupting prominence on the NE limb ~1930UT.
No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available SOHO LASCO
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for
14-16 March. Solar wind speed continued decreasing to be around
400 km/s at the time of this report. The IMF Bz was predominately
northward during the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain at nominal levels day one, then gradually increase
on days two and three as a large recurrent southern hemisphere
coronal hole moves into a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 12210001
Cocos Island 2 12200000
Darwin 2 12210001
Townsville 2 12210001
Learmonth 3 12221000
Norfolk Island 3 12210011
Culgoora 2 12210001
Gingin 3 22210000
Camden 4 13211011
Canberra 3 03210001
Launceston 5 13311001
Hobart 4 03310001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 02202000
Casey 16 35522001
Mawson 9 23222204
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 2322 1341
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 7 Quiet
15 Mar 30 Quiet to Minor Storm
16 Mar 20 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the Australian
region during last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain
mostly Quiet for the next 24 hours. Quiet to Active conditions
with possible Minor Storm periods for 15-16 March due to coronal
hole effects. There is a chance that aurora may be visible from
high magnetic latitudes regions of Australia, including Tasmania
and some parts of Victoria on the local nights of 15-16 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
15 Mar Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
16 Mar Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 30 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Mar 30 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed during the last 24 hours.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Degradations in HF conditions may be observed from 15 March in
response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 500 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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