[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 7 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
6 March, with no C-class flares. There were a number of smaller
B-class flares, all of which were associated with Sunspot Region(2512).
Region 2512 is currently located near N11W23. The strongest flare
from this region, B7.2 flare (peak at 06/0512 UT) appear to have
triggered a coronal mass ejection (CME). More update on this
event will be provided after the completion of the model runs.
There are currently ten numbered Earth facing sunspot regions
on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook (6-7 March) is for low solar
activity with chance of C-class flares. The solar wind has gradually
enhanced from near ambient levels of ~350 km/s to nearly 600
km/s during the past 24 hrs. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
between -12 nT and 12 nT. Importantly, it had remained mostly
southwards during the last 11 hrs of the UT day (from 06/1300
UT). Bt was between 5 nT and 22 nT, with peak intensity of 22
nT at 06/1700 UT. These perturbation in the interplanetary magnetic
field conditions and the observed increase in the solar wind
speeds is in response to the CIR and subsequent high speed streams
from a small equatorial coronal hole. The 2-day outlook (7-8
March) is for the solar winds to continue to gradually increase
as the coronal hole effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet and reaching
minor storm levels towards the end of the UT day
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 17 12333444
Cocos Island 15 12322444
Darwin 16 12332444
Townsville 16 12332444
Learmonth 22 12333455
Norfolk Island 11 01322334
Culgoora 15 02332444
Gingin 24 01323465
Camden 16 02333444
Canberra 14 01322444
Melbourne 21 1-333454
Launceston 23 12433554
Hobart 18 02323454
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
Macquarie Island 25 01212664
Casey 15 33323334
Mawson 34 12322557
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0021 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 30 Active to Minor Storm
08 Mar 20 Active
09 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 5 March and
is current for 6-7 Mar. The geomagnetic conditions were mostly
quiet at the start of the UT day 6 March, however reached minor
storm levels towards the end. The Australian DST dipped to a
minimum of -90 nT at 06/1958 UT. These disturbed geomagnetic
conditions are associated with high speed streams emanating from
a equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bz has also remained southwards
for the last 11 hours, which increased the coupling between the
disturbed solar winds and the Earth's magnetosphere. The outlook
for UT day 7 March is for the minor storm conditions to continue,
which at times could possibly reach major storm levels. On UT
day 8 March, geomagnetic conditions are expected to trend towards
mostly active levels as the coronal effects begin to wane. There
is chance that aurora may be visible from high magnetic latitude
regions of Australia, including Tasmania and some parts of Victoria,
at the local night of 7 March and 8 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
08 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 6 March were above the
predicted monthly values. Similar conditions are expected for
UT day 7 March in the low latitudes regions. The mid and high
latitude regions could experience MUF depressions associated
with forecasted active geomagnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The observed MUFs for the Australian region on UT day
6 March were higher than the predicted monthly MUF values. Minor
degradation of MUFs are expected on UT day 06 March, though these
are expected to be slightly below the monthly median. The possible
degradations on UT day 07 March is forecasted in response to
the current minor storm conditions associated with the equatorial
coronal hole. Drop in ionospheric densities are usually delayed
by up to 24 hrs after the onset of storm. HF users are advised
to use slightly lower frequencies compared to our monthly predicted
MUF values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 47400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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