[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 07 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Mar 8 10:30:31 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar:  94/40

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
All active regions on the solar disk appear stable. Solar activity 
is expected to be very Low to Low for 08-10 March. Solar wind 
speed remained elevated over 500 km/s over the UT day, but is 
expected to decline over the next 3 days. The Bz component of 
IMF was mostly neutral since 05UT limiting the geoeffectiveness 
of the enhanced solar wind.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Unsettled to 
Active

Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33223333
      Cocos Island        13   33223333
      Darwin              13   33223333
      Townsville          13   33223333
      Learmonth           16   43223334
      Norfolk Island       9   33222222
      Culgoora            14   33323333
      Gingin              21   44233444
      Camden              15   33333333
      Canberra            14   33233333
      Melbourne           15   333---33
      Launceston          19   44334333
      Hobart              15   33333333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    28   33455533
      Casey               28   55533334
      Mawson              54   45433766

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        9   (Quiet)
      Gingin              49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            60   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           37   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             31   0021 2666     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Mar     7    Quiet
10 Mar     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Unsettled to Active conditions observed for the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours due to high speed streams emanating 
from a coronal hole. The outlook for 08-10 March is for mostly 
Quiet conditions and at times possibly reaching unsettled levels 
due to the waning effects of the coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed 
over the next 24 hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Mar    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
09 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations 
in HF conditions were observed on 07 March in the Aus/NZ regions. 
Periods of SF conditions observed at some mid-latitude locations 
today. Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed over 
the next 24 hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:   13.7 p/cc  Temp:    43100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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