[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 16 issued 2332 UT on 04 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 5 10:32:28 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day, 
4 March, with only one weak C-class (C1.1) flares. The C1.1 flare 
peaked at 04/0900 UT and was from Region 2506, which was located 
near the west limb at the time of flaring. According to the LASCO 
coronagraph imagery, this event seem to have triggered a Coronal 
Mass Ejections (CME). More updates on the effect of this event 
on earth will be provided after the completion of the model runs. 
There are currently ten numbered Earth-facing sunspot regions 
on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook (5-6 March) is for low solar 
activity with chance of C-class flares. The eruptive filament 
that was observed near the solar centre (~S10W05) at about 03/1419 
UT had triggered a CME. However, the LASCO coronagraph imagery 
data were missing for the time interval relevant to this event. 
Based on the location of the erupting filament and the trajectory 
of the CME, this event may have an impact at earth on UT day 
6 March or thereabout. The solar wind has gradually declined 
from ~430 km/s to ~300 km/s during the past 24 hrs. This observed 
declining trend in the solar wind speeds is in response to the 
waning effect of the northern hemisphere coronal hole. The Bz 
component of the IMF fluctuated between -2 nT and 6 nT. Bt was 
nearly constant, near 5 nT throughout the UT day. The 2-day outlook 
(5-6 March) is for the solar winds to again gradually increase 
as a new, small equatorial coronal hole moves into a geoeffective 
location.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21000101
      Cocos Island         1   21000000
      Darwin               1   11100101
      Townsville           2   21100101
      Learmonth            3   31000101
      Norfolk Island       2   21000011
      Culgoora             2   21000101
      Gingin               2   31000100
      Camden               2   21010101
      Canberra             1   11000100
      Melbourne            2   21010100
      Launceston           2   22010100
      Hobart               2   21010100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   21010000
      Casey                6   33221101
      Mawson               6   43111100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1313 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar    16    Active
07 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during 
the last 24 hours (4 March). The outlook for UT day 5 March is 
for mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions. These conditions 
are forecasted in response to the expected arrival of CIR and 
subsequent high speed solar wind streams from by a small equatorial 
coronal hole moving into a geoeffective location on the solar 
disk. On UT day 6 March, active and at times possibly reaching 
minor storm levels is anticipated. Active conditions on 6 March 
is due to the coronal hole effects, combined with the possible 
arrival of the 03 March CME. There is chance that aurora may 
be visible from high magnetic latitudes regions of Australia, 
including Tasmania and some parts of Victoria.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 4 March were slightly 
above the predicted monthly values. Similar conditions are expected 
for UT day 5 March in the mid and low latitudes regions. The 
high latitude regions could experience MUF depressions associated 
with forecasted active geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Mar    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Mar    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The observed MUFs for the Australian region on UT day 
4 March were slightly higher than the predicted monthly MUF values. 
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next two days. Minor 
degradation of MUFs are expected on UT day 07 March in response 
of active geomagnetic conditions associated with the equatorial 
coronal hole and the possible arrival of the 3 March CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    77400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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