[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 4 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 3 March, with no C-class flares. There are currently seven
numbered Earth-facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The
2-day outlook (4-5 March) is for very low solar activity with
weak chance of smaller C-class flares. A eruptive filament,approximately
10 degrees long, was observed near the solar centre (~S10W05)
at about 03/1419 UT. Inspection of the SDO imagery reveals that
this event has triggered a Coronal Mass Ejections (CME). No LASCO
coronagraph imagery were available at the time of writing this
report. Based on the location of the erupting filament and the
trajectory of the possible CME, this event may have an impact
at earth. Updates on this events will be provided when the LASCO
coronagraph imagery data is made available. The solar wind has
been nearly constant, at the elevated level of almost 500 km/s
during the past 24 hrs. These moderately high solar wind speeds
are associated with high speed streams emanating from a northern
hemisphere coronal hole. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
between -4 nT and 6 nT. Bt was nearly constant, near 5 nT throughout
the UT day. The outlook for 4 March is for the solar winds to
gradually trend towards ambient levels as the effects of this
coronal hole wanes. On UT day 5 March, the solar winds is expected
to again gradually increase as a new, equatorial coronal holes
moves into a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22223202
Cocos Island 3 12122100
Darwin 7 22223202
Townsville 7 22223212
Learmonth 6 22223102
Norfolk Island 4 12122111
Culgoora 6 22222202
Gingin 6 22223102
Camden 8 22233212
Canberra 6 12232202
Melbourne 8 22233202
Launceston 10 23233213
Hobart 8 13233202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie Island 8 12243201
Casey 15 35432112
Mawson 12 33332114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2002 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 6 Quiet
05 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during
the last 24 hours (3 March). The outlook for UT day 4 March is
for mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions and at times could reach
unsettled levels. These conditions are forecasted due to the
persisting moderately high solar wind speeds associated with
the Northern Hemisphere coronal hole. Similar conditions are
expected for UT day 5 and 6 March in response to a new equatorial
coronal holes moving into a geoeffective location by 5 March.
These forecast for geomagnetic conditions would change if it
was concluded that the 03 March eruptive filament produced an
Earth-directed CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 3 March were slightly
above the predicted monthly values. Similar conditions are expected
for UT day 4 March in the mid and low latitudes regions. The
high latitude regions could experience MUF depressions associated
with forecasted active geomagnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Mar 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The observed MUFs for the Australian region on UT day
3 March were slightly higher than the predicted monthly MUF values.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next three days. The
incoming solar radiation causing the ionisation has been moderately
high over the last 7 day and this is maintaining the good HF
propagation conditions. Losses due to recombination processes
are at normal levels since there is no strong geomagnetic conditions
to modify the thermospheric circulations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 92200 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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