[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 3 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 2 March, with no C-class flares. There are currently five
numbered Earth-facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The
2-day outlook (3-4 March) is for very low solar activity with
weak chance of smaller C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
has elevated from nearly 400 km/s to almost 500 km/s during the
past 24 hrs. These moderate enhancements in the solar wind speed
is associated with high speed streams emanating from a northern
hemisphere coronal hole. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
between -8 nT and 10 nT. Bt was between 5-12 nT. The outlook
for 3 March is for the solar winds to remain slightly elevated
as the effects of the coronal hole persist. On 4 March, it is
expected that the solar winds will gradually trend towards ambient
levels as the effects of this coronal hole wane. However, on
late UT day 4 March or thereabout, the solar winds is expected
to again gradually increase as a new, small equatorial coronal
holes moves into a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12122211
Cocos Island 3 1211-200
Darwin 5 12122212
Townsville 5 12122212
Learmonth 6 12122311
Norfolk Island 4 12021211
Culgoora 4 12121211
Gingin 6 12112321
Camden 5 12122211
Canberra 4 02121211
Melbourne 7 12222321
Launceston 6 12222311
Hobart 6 12221311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 01132210
Casey 15 35432211
Mawson 12 43323311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3222 2203
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Mar 6 Quiet
05 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during
the last 24 hours (2 March). The outlook for UT day 3 March is
for mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. These conditions are
forecasted due to the moderately high solar wind speeds associated
with high speed streams emanating from a Northern Hemisphere
coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to return to
mostly quiet levels on UT day 4 March as the effects of the coronal
hole wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 2 March were slightly
above the predicted monthly values. Similar conditions are expected
for UT day 3 March in the mid and low latitudes regions. The
high latitude regions could experience MUF depressions associated
with forecasted active geomagnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values were observed
in the Australian region on 2-March. Near monthly predicted values
are expected for the next three days. The incoming solar radiation
causing the ionisation has been moderately high over the last
7 day and this is maintaining the good HF propagation conditions.
Losses due to recombination processes are at normal levels since
there is no strong geomagnetic conditions to modify the thermospheric
circulations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 84900 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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