[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 2 10:30:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 1 March, with no C-class flares. There are currently three
numbered Earth facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The
2-day outlook (2-3 March) is for very low solar activity with
weak chance of smaller C-class flares. A large eruptive filament,approximately
18 degrees long, was observed on the northeast limb (N20E80)
at about 01/0800 UT. Inspection of the LASCO coronagraph imagery
reveals that this event generated a Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)
with a shock speed of 576 km/s. Preliminary model runs indicate
that the CME is not expected to have an impact at Earth. The
solar wind has elevated from nearly 300 km/s to almost 400 km/s
during the past 24 hrs. These moderate enhancements in the solar
wind speed is associated with high speed streams emanating from
a northern hemisphere coronal hole. The Bz component of the IMF
fluctuated between -8 nT and 8 nT. Bt was between 5-15 nT. The
outlook for 2 March is for the solar winds to remain slightly
elevated in response to the coronal hole. On 3 March, it is expected
that the solar winds will gradually trend towards ambient levels
as the effects of the coronal hole wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 13221212
Cocos Island 4 12211201
Darwin 6 23211202
Townsville 7 23221212
Learmonth 7 23221212
Norfolk Island 5 13221102
Culgoora 6 -3211212
Gingin 4 22211201
Camden 6 13221212
Canberra 5 13211202
Melbourne 6 13221212
Launceston 7 23221212
Hobart 6 13221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 12231101
Casey 16 35432113
Mawson 9 33322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2001 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 12 Unsettled
03 Mar 6 Quiet
04 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled
during the last 24 hours (1 Feb). The outlook for UT day 2 March
is for mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. These conditions
are forecasted due to the expected moderately high solar wind
speeds associated with high speed streams emanating from a Northern
Hemisphere coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to return to mostly quiet levels on UT day 3 March as the effects
of the coronal hole wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 1 March were slightly
above the predicted monthly values. Similar conditions are expected
for UT day 2 March in the mid and low latitudes regions. The
high latitude regions could experience MUF depressions associated
with forecasted active geomagnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
03 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values were observed
in the Australian region on 29-Feb. Near monthly predicted values
are expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Feb
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 33000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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