[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 29 09:30:24 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 28 June.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days
with a slight chance for C-class flares. No sunspots are visible
on the solar disk at this time. No Earthward directed CMEs noted
on LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speed
decreased gradually to the current ~400km/s. The total IMF strength
was near steady ranging from 4-6 nT during the last 24 hours.
The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-5nT. Expect the
solar wind speed to remain at nominal levels day 1, 29 June.
On 30 June expect the solar wind to increase due to a northern
coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 21122120
Cocos Island 3 21111110
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 4 22121111
Learmonth 3 11121120
Alice Springs 3 22111110
Norfolk Island 3 --121011
Gingin 4 11122120
Canberra 4 21122120
Melbourne 5 22222120
Launceston 6 22223120
Hobart 4 11122120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 02232010
Casey 9 33212231
Mawson 13 34323231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 11 4331 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 5 Quiet
30 Jun 15 Quiet to Active
01 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian
region for the UT day, 28 June. Antarctic region was Quiet to
Unsettled. Expect mostly Quiet conditions to prevail over the
next 24 hours. Expect an increase in geomagnetic activity from
30 June with Unsettled conditions and isolated Active periods,
particularly at high latitudes due to an increase in the solar
wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jun Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
01 Jul Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative
to monthly predicted values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
01 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs depressions were observed in the Australian region
during the UT day 28 June. Noted periods sporadic E at Cocos
Island station. Expect similar conditions during the next 24
hours. Further MUFs depressions and degradation in HF conditions
are possible from day 1, 30 June especially at mid and high latitudes
as geomagnetic activity is expected to be enhanced on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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