[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 30 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low during the UT day 29
June. Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three
days with a slight chance for C-class flares. No sunspots are
visible on the solar disk at this time. No Earthward directed
CMEs noted on LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hours the solar
wind speed continued decreasing to the current ~350km/s. The
total IMF strength was near steady at ~ 4nT during the last 24
hours. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-4nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to increase today,30 June due to
a northern coronal hole becoming geoeffective. The outlook for
1 July is for the solar winds to trend towards background levels
as northern coronal hole effects wane. Late UT day 2 July, the
solar winds are expected to start enhancing again as an equatorial
coronal hole approaches geoeffective location on the solar disk.
In the previous rotations, solar wind speed reached more than
550 km/s.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11110110
Cocos Island 1 11000010
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 2 --110110
Learmonth 1 10110110
Alice Springs 0 00000100
Norfolk Island 2 11--0011
Gingin 2 10010220
Canberra 0 01000000
Melbourne 2 11110110
Launceston 1 10110110
Hobart 1 00010110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 22211111
Mawson 18 42211163
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3312 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 15 Quiet to Active
01 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jul 30 Quiet to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian
region for the UT day, 29 June. Expect an increase in geomagnetic
activity from 30 June with Unsettled conditions and possibly
isolated Active periods, particularly at high latitudes due to
an increase in the solar wind speed. These conditions are expected
to prevail until a recurrent prolonged equatorial coronal hole
effects come into play late 2 July, bringing Active and possibly
Minor Storm periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
01 Jul Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
02 Jul Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Expect MUFS to be depressed relative to monthly predicted
values. Disturbed ionospheric support for mid to high latitudes
due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
01 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
02 Jul 10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 28 June
and is current for 29 Jun to 1 Jul. MUFs depressions were observed
in the Australian region during the UT day 29 June. Further MUFs
depressions and degradation in HF conditions are possible from
today, 30 June especially at mid and high latitudes as geomagnetic
activity is expected to be enhanced starting this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 85700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list