[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 28 09:30:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 27 June.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days
with a slight chance for C-class flares. No sunspots are visible
on the solar disk at this time. No Earthward directed CMEs noted
on LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speed
varied around 500 km/s. The total IMF strength was near steady
ranging from 4-6 nT during the last 24 hours. The Bz component
of the IMF ranged between +/-5nT. Expect the solar wind speed
to be at nominal levels for the next two days 28-29June. On 30
June expect the solar wind to increase due to a northern coronal
hole becoming geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 22211000
Cocos Island 3 22211000
Darwin 3 22201000
Townsville 5 22311011
Learmonth 3 22211001
Alice Springs 2 22200000
Norfolk Island 4 2221--00
Gingin 5 32211011
Canberra 4 22301000
Melbourne 5 32311001
Launceston 6 32311011
Hobart 5 32301000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 31302000
Casey 8 33312112
Mawson 28 54442216
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 2221 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 5 Quiet
29 Jun 5 Quiet
30 Jun 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian
region with isolated Unsettled periods at higher latitudes for
the UT day, 27 June. Antarctic region was Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated cases of minor storming. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
to prevail over the next two days, 28-29 June. Expect an increase
in geomagnetic activity on 30 June with Unsettled conditions
and isolated Active periods, particularly at high latitudes due
to an increase in the solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jun Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative
to monthly predicted values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jun 20 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions to near predicted monthly values were
observed in the Australian region during the UT day 27 June.
Expect similar conditions during the next two days, 28-29 June.
Further degradation in Hf conditions and MUFs depressions are
possible on 30 June especially at mid and high latitudes as geomagnetic
activity is expected to be enhanced on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 147000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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