[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 27 09:30:19 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 26 June. 
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days 
with a slight chance for C-class flares. No sunspots are visible 
on the solar disk at this time. No Earthward directed CMEs noted 
on LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speed 
varied between 420km/s to 520km/s and is currently just under 
500km/s. The total IMF strength was near steady ranging from 
5-9nT during the last 24 hours, currently 6nT. The Bz component 
of the IMF ranged between +7/-6nT. Expect the solar wind to return 
gradually to nominal levels as coronal hole effects subside.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11122322
      Cocos Island         4   11111221
      Darwin               5   11122222
      Townsville           7   21123321
      Learmonth            5   11122222
      Alice Springs        6   11122322
      Norfolk Island       5   11122212
      Gingin               8   11132332
      Canberra             6   11132311
      Melbourne            7   11132322
      Launceston           8   11133321
      Hobart               7   11-32311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     7   00142311
      Casey               20   33232632
      Mawson              21   33322355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   3221 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun     6    Quiet
28 Jun     4    Quiet
29 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the 
Australian region for the UT day, 26 June. Antarctic region was 
Quiet to Unsettled with isolated cases of minor storming. Expect 
mostly Quiet conditions to prevail over the next three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period 
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative 
to monthly predicted values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jun    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
28 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
29 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 26 June 
and is current for 27 Jun only. Minor depressions to near predicted 
monthly values were observed in the Australian region during 
the UT day 26 June. MUFs were near predicted monthly values for 
the Antarctic region with periods of little to no ionospheric 
support for HF communications. Expect similar conditions during 
the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 469 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    77400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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