[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 26 09:30:18 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 25 June.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days
with a slight chance for C-class flares due to regions rotating
onto the northeast limb. No sunspots are visible on the solar
disk at this time. LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME on the northeast
limb beginning at 25/0312UT. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speed decreased from near
525km/s to approximately 440km/s as the coronal hole influence
subsides. The total IMF strength was near steady ranging from
4-6nT during the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF ranged
between +4/-5nT. Expect the solar wind to return gradually to
nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 21211121
Cocos Island 4 11211121
Darwin 3 22100121
Townsville 5 222111--
Learmonth 5 21211221
Alice Springs 3 21200120
Norfolk Island 2 21100--1
Gingin 6 21112231
Camden 4 21211121
Canberra 3 21211110
Melbourne 5 22211121
Launceston 7 32222211
Hobart 4 21111211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 21111210
Casey 7 32212222
Mawson 24 33322256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 3532 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 5 Quiet
27 Jun 4 Quiet
28 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet in the Australian
region for the UT day, 25 June. Antarctic region was mostly Quiet
to Unsettled. Expect mostly Quiet conditions to prevail over
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative
to monthly predicted values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild depressions to near predicted monthly values were
observed in the Australian region during the UT day 25 June.
MUFs were near predicted monthly values for the Antarctic region
with periods of little to no ionospheric support for HF communications.
Expect similar conditions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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