[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 20 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C1 X-ray flare from region 2558 (N13W37). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be very low
to low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined from
620 km/s to 490 km/s. The total IMF strength climbed slightly
to around 5 nT. The Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. The
solar wind speed is likely to increase late on 21-Jun due to
a southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12111200
Cocos Island 2 12110100
Darwin 3 12111200
Townsville 5 22212201
Learmonth 2 12101200
Alice Springs 3 12202200
Norfolk Island 2 11101200
Gingin 4 22201210
Camden 3 12112200
Canberra 2 21101200
Melbourne 4 12112210
Launceston 6 22212310
Hobart 4 22111210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 12012200
Casey 8 33221310
Mawson 18 45522211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 64 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2332 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 5 Quiet
21 Jun 12 Quiet to active
22 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region on 19-Jun. Similar conditions are expected on 20-Jun,
with active periods possible from late 21-Jun due to a likely
increase in solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
21 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of poor ionospheric support observed at high
latitudes over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions
for mid latitudes, with depressed MUFs at times for low latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for 21-22 Jun, with some improvement
possible on 22-Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values, with moderate
northern depressions.
21 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values, with moderate
northern depressions.
22 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions were observed in northern
Australia and equatorial regions over the last 24 hours, though
Cocos Island had enhanced MUFs during local daytime. MUFs were
near predicted monthly values for southern Australia, with periods
of disturbed ionospheric support observed for Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions are expected for 20-21 Jun with some improvement
possible on 22-Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 593 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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