[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 21 09:30:17 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 20 June.
Expect Solar activity to remain Very Low to Low over the next
three days. C2 and Stereo A imagery showed a large CME on the
north (slightly west) Limb beginning at 20/1648UT. In addition
there was material ejected on the south west limb near a streamer
beginning at 19/2336UT. Neither is expected to be geo-effective.
The solar wind speed gradually declined from 500 km/s to 420
km/s. The total IMF strength ranged between 2-5 nT. The Bz component
varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed may increase again
late on 21 June to early on 22 June due to a southern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 12100001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 12110001
Townsville 2 22110001
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Norfolk Island 0 ---00000
Gingin 1 11100001
Camden 2 12100001
Canberra 0 11000000
Melbourne 2 12100001
Launceston 4 221---01
Hobart 1 12100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 4 22311000
Mawson 6 13311012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2221 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 6 Quiet
22 Jun 12 Unsettled
23 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region on 20 June. Expect Quiet conditions today, 21 June until
late in the UT day when the solar wind may increase due to a
coronal becoming geo-effective. Late on 21 June to 23 June there
may be Unsettle conditions with isolated cases of active conditions,
particular at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative
to monthly predicted values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
22 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
23 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed in northern Australian
and equatorial regions during the UT day 20 June. MUFs were near
predicted monthly values for southern Australia. The Antarctic
region had periods of little to no ionospheric support for HF
communications, but also periods of slightly enhanced support.
Similar conditions are expected for 21-23 June. Noted periods
sporadic E at Cocos Island and Hobart stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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