[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 16 issued 2337 UT on 18 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 19 09:37:43 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The largest flare being a B3.8 from region 2555 (currently at
S08W84) around 1148UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
The solar wind speed ranged between 550km/s to 650km/s over the
UT day and is currently ~620km/s at the time of this report.
Solar wind speed is expected to decrease over the next 24 hours.
Bt, the total magnetic field of the IMF ranged between 5nT to
3nT over the UT day. There were no significant sustained southward
periods for Bz. There are currently 4 numbered regions on the
visible disc and none appear to have exhibited any growth or
increase in magnetic complexity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days
with only the chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 12222111
Cocos Island 3 11221110
Darwin 5 12222111
Townsville 6 222221--
Learmonth 4 12221111
Alice Springs 5 12222111
Gingin 6 12222221
Camden 6 -3222111
Canberra 5 12222111
Melbourne 5 12222112
Launceston 4 -----211
Hobart 5 12222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 11233100
Casey 10 33322222
Mawson 28 35452245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1222 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 5 Quiet
20 Jun 5 Quiet
21 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind speed remains elevated under the influence of a high speed
stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, whilst Bz remains
at ambient levels. Coronal hole effects on the solar wind are
expected to diminish over the next 24-36hrs. Quiet conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of poor ionospheric support observed at high
latitudes over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions
for low to mid latitudes with occasional slightly depressed MUFs
at times for low latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions observed for Northern Australia
and Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted
monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ regions and periods of disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 579 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 170000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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