[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 16 issued 2351 UT on 17 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 18 09:51:05 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    87/30              87/30              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The largest flare being a B4.0 from region 2555 (currently at 
S09W68) around 0926UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 
A partial halo CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning 0748UT 
on 16Jun is a backside event with no earth directed component. 
The solar wind speed increased slightly over the UT day from 
~~500km/s at 00UT to a peak of 656km/s at 1157UT. Solar wind is 
currently ~590km/s at the time of this report and is expected 
to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours. The north-south 
component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-6nT over the whole 
UT day with no significant sustained southward periods. There 
are currently 3 numbered regions on the visible disc with no 
observed growth in spot size or increase in magnetic complexity 
seen over the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be 
Very Low to Low for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12222221
      Cocos Island         4   1-211220
      Darwin               6   12222221
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            5   22212220
      Alice Springs        6   12222221
      Gingin               7   12223221
      Camden               7   12223221
      Canberra             6   11123221
      Melbourne            8   12233221
      Launceston           8   12233222
      Hobart               7   11233221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     7   01143211
      Casey               18   33322261
      Mawson              24   24443354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           26   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2111 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun     6    Quiet
20 Jun     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days with chance 
of Unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of poor ionospheric support observed at high 
latitudes over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions 
for low to mid latitudes with occasional depressed periods for 
low latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jun    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions observed for Northern Australia 
and Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted 
monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ regions and periods of disturbed 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 536 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   130000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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