[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 16 issued 2332 UT on 14 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 15 09:32:39 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is likely
to be very low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed continued
to decline until around 10 UT, dropping to ~400 km/s. It has
since climbed to be around 560 km/s. The total IMF strength peaked
around 16 nT, currently around 11 nT. The Bz component was mostly
negative 17-22 UT, dipping to around -15 nT, currently -6 nT.
The solar wind speed is likely to remain elevated during 15-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 22211253
Cocos Island 8 11221143
Darwin 9 22211243
Townsville 12 22221253
Learmonth 13 12211254
Alice Springs 12 22211253
Norfolk Island 8 21111243
Culgoora 13 22222253
Gingin 13 22211254
Camden 12 22112253
Canberra 11 22111253
Melbourne 12 22112253
Launceston 13 22222253
Hobart 11 21111253
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 10011142
Casey 39 23221284
Mawson 97 54432398
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3512 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 20 Unsettled to Minor Storm
16 Jun 12 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 14 June and
is current for 15 Jun only. Magnetic conditions were quiet across
the Australian region until around 18 UT when coronal hole influences
raised activity to minor storm levels briefly. Conditions are
currently unsettled to active. Minor storm periods are possible
on 15-Jun at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal-poor Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal Poor-normal
16 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Poor ionospheric support for HF communications was observed
at high latitudes for the latter half of the UT day. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values on 15-16 Jun, with
some depressed periods. Poor HF support is likely at high latitudes
on 15-Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
16 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
17 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate overnight MUF depressions observed in northern
Australia and equatorial regions. Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly
predicted values. Periods of mild to moderate MUF depressions
are possible on 15-16 Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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