[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 16 issued 2332 UT on 14 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 15 09:32:39 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jun             16 Jun             17 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is likely 
to be very low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed continued 
to decline until around 10 UT, dropping to ~400 km/s. It has 
since climbed to be around 560 km/s. The total IMF strength peaked 
around 16 nT, currently around 11 nT. The Bz component was mostly 
negative 17-22 UT, dipping to around -15 nT, currently -6 nT. 
The solar wind speed is likely to remain elevated during 15-Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22211253
      Cocos Island         8   11221143
      Darwin               9   22211243
      Townsville          12   22221253
      Learmonth           13   12211254
      Alice Springs       12   22211253
      Norfolk Island       8   21111243
      Culgoora            13   22222253
      Gingin              13   22211254
      Camden              12   22112253
      Canberra            11   22111253
      Melbourne           12   22112253
      Launceston          13   22222253
      Hobart              11   21111253    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     5   10011142
      Casey               39   23221284
      Mawson              97   54432398

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              44   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           65   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3512 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jun    20    Unsettled to Minor Storm
16 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 14 June and 
is current for 15 Jun only. Magnetic conditions were quiet across 
the Australian region until around 18 UT when coronal hole influences 
raised activity to minor storm levels briefly. Conditions are 
currently unsettled to active. Minor storm periods are possible 
on 15-Jun at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal-poor    Normal         Poor-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Poor-normal
16 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Poor ionospheric support for HF communications was observed 
at high latitudes for the latter half of the UT day. MUFs are 
expected to be near predicted monthly values on 15-16 Jun, with 
some depressed periods. Poor HF support is likely at high latitudes 
on 15-Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jun    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
16 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
17 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Moderate overnight MUF depressions observed in northern 
Australia and equatorial regions. Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly 
predicted values. Periods of mild to moderate MUF depressions 
are possible on 15-16 Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 527 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   140000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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