[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 16 09:30:21 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected 
to remain very low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
peaked at around 750 km/s then declined gradually to be currently 
around 580 km/s. The total IMF strength peaked at 11 nT, currently 
around 6 nT. The Bz component had a positive bias, varying between 
-5 nT and +9 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33233110
      Cocos Island         4   22222100
      Darwin               7   32232111
      Townsville           8   33232111
      Learmonth            7   32332100
      Alice Springs        7   32233100
      Culgoora             7   22222222
      Gingin               8   32233110
      Camden               8   33233100
      Canberra             7   33223100
      Melbourne            9   33233110
      Launceston           9   33323210
      Hobart               8   33233100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    13   43244200
      Casey               15   54332111
      Mawson              26   54554212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           18   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin             112   (Major storm)
      Canberra            74   (Active)
      Melbourne           89   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18   3112 2263     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active
17 Jun    20    Active
18 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions on 15-Jun were quiet to unsettled 
across the Australian region until around 15 UT, then quiet. 
Minor storm levels were reached at times in the Antarctic. Mostly 
quiet conditions are expected across the Australian region on 
16-Jun, with a possible increase in activity late on 17-Jun, 
due to coronal hole influence.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
18 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor

COMMENT: Periods of poor ionospheric support for HF communications 
were observed at high latitudes on 15-Jun. MUF depressions at 
mid latitudes are possible on 18-Jun following an expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity on 17-Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jun    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions observed at times in northern Australia 
and equatorial regions. Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly predicted 
values. MUFs are likely to be near predicted monthly values on 
16-17 Jun, with depressions possible on 18-Jun due to a likely 
increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    98100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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