[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 16 issued 2331 UT on 13 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 14 09:31:12 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 94/40 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
the largest event being a C3 X-ray flare from region 2552 (now
past the west limb). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low over the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed peaked around 620 km/s but has since declined
to around 480 km/s. Total IMF strength has declined to around
4 nT. The Bz component dipped to -6 nT early in the UT day, but
is now neutral. The solar wind speed is expected to decline further
during 14-Jun before increasing again on 15-Jun due to an equatorial
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 23122111
Cocos Island 3 22211010
Darwin 6 23222111
Townsville 7 33222111
Learmonth 6 23222011
Alice Springs 5 23222010
Norfolk Island 4 23022010
Culgoora 7 22232112
Gingin 8 23223112
Camden 5 23122110
Canberra 5 23122110
Melbourne 8 23133111
Launceston 8 23133111
Hobart 7 23133110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 21033000
Casey 11 34322122
Mawson 23 35533143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 59 (Unsettled)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 73 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 2232 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 5 Quiet
15 Jun 12 Unsettled
16 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled across the
Australian region on 13-Jun. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
on 14-Jun, with activity increasing again 15-Jun due to coronal
hole influence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal-poor Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Poor ionospheric support for HF communications was observed
at low latitudes 15-17 UT and at high latitudes from 14 UT. For
14-16 Jun, MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values,
with some depressed periods.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
15 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
16 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions were observed on 13-Jun
in northern Australia, with some enhanced periods in equatorial
regions. Southern Australian Mostly MUFs were mostly predicted
monthly values. Similar conditions are likely over the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 154000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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