[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 16 issued 2340 UT on 12 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 13 09:40:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 12 June, with one weak C-class flare and a number of smaller
B-class flares. The strongest flare, C1.8 peaked at 12/2040 UT
and was from Region 2552. The two day outlook (13-14 June) is
for very low solar activity with chance of C-class flares due
to flaring potential from Region 2554. Region 2552 will soon
rotate to the far-side of the Sun. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speeds
remained moderately enhanced near 500 km/s throughout the UT
day 12 June. These are effects of high speed solar wind streams
(HSS) associated with the large Northern Hemisphere coronal hole.
The Bz component of IMF fluctuated rapidly between -10 and +10
nT during the last 12 hours of the UT day. Meanwhile Bt was steady
near 10 nT. The two day outlook (13 -14 June) is for the solar
winds to remain at these moderately enhanced levels. This is
in response to the waning effects of Northern Hemisphere coronal
hole combined with the effects of an approaching small equatorial
coronal hole. In the previous rotation, the daily mean solar
wind speeds were greater at 400 km/s for at least 7 consecutive
days during the passage of these two coronal holes. Similar effects
are expected in this rotations.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 12222231
Cocos Island 6 12212231
Darwin 7 12222231
Townsville 7 12222231
Learmonth 8 12322232
Alice Springs 7 12222232
Norfolk Island 5 12121221
Gingin 7 11222232
Camden 7 12222231
Canberra 6 12221231
Melbourne 7 12222231
Launceston 7 12222232
Hobart 6 12221231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
Macquarie Island 7 01333121
Casey 13 33332332
Mawson 16 33432324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 4222 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 12 Unsettled
14 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region
were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the past 24 hours
(June 12). Despite the moderately enhanced solar wind speeds due
to HSS from the coronal hole, no significant geomagnetic disturbances
were noticed due to unfavourable IMF Bz conditions. The two day
outlook (13-14 June) is for geomagnetic activity to be generally
at quiet to unsettled levels as moderately high solar wind
speeds are expected to continue for next few days. This is
a combined effect of the waning Northern Hemisphere coronal hole
and the approaching small equatorial coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected today, 13 June,
in the mid and low latitude regions. Expect some degradation
of high latitude MUFs today in response to the forecasted unsettled
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole. Depressions
are expected to be stronger in the Northern Hemisphere regions
compared to the Southern Hemisphere regions during this time
of the year.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 11 June
and is current for 12-13 Jun. During the past 24 hours (12 June),
the nighttime MUFs over the Northern parts of Australia were
moderately depressed. On the day side and as well as the Southern
Australian Regions, MUFs were near the monthly predicted levels.
The two day outlook (13-14 June) is HF conditions to be near
the monthly predicted levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 200000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list