[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 16 issued 2351 UT on 11 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 12 09:51:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
11 June, with one C-class flare and a number of smaller B-class
flares. The strongest flare, C6.5 peaked at 11/2228 UT lasting
for nearly an hour and was from Region 2552. This sunspot region
is currently located on the west limb (N16W76) and will soon
rotate to the far-side of the sun. Thus outlook for 12 June is
for low to moderate solar activity with C-class flares likely
and small chance of M-class flares due flaring threat from Region
2552. On 13 and 14 June, the solar activity is expected to return
to low levels with chance of C-class flares only. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar
wind speeds remained moderately enhanced, between 400 km/s and
600 km/s, during the UT day 11 June. These are effects of high
speed solar wind streams (HSS) associated with the large Northern
Hemisphere coronal hole. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between
-6 and +6 nT. Bz had been at weak levels to cause any significant
geomagnetic disturbances despite the enhanced solar winds. Bt
was steady near 10 nT throughout the UT day, 11 June. The two
day outlook (12 -13 June) is for the solar winds to remain initially
at enhanced levels and then to gradually decline as the coronal
hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 21211113
Cocos Island 5 11211113
Darwin 6 21211123
Townsville 6 21211213
Learmonth 8 22321223
Alice Springs 5 21211113
Norfolk Island 4 21111112
Gingin 9 32311223
Camden 6 22211113
Canberra 5 21111213
Melbourne 6 21211213
Launceston 7 22222213
Hobart 3 111210--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 11122201
Casey 12 33322323
Mawson 36 54423337
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Melbourne 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1101 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 11 Unsettled to Active
13 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 11 June and
is current for 11-12 Jun. The geomagnetic conditions over the
Australian region were mostly at quiet levels during the past
24 hours (June 11). Despite the moderately enhanced solar wind
speed due to HSS from the coronal hole, the geomagnetic activity
were at quiet levels due to unfavourable IMF Bz conditions. Today
(12 June) conditions are expected to reach active levels at times
due the persisting coronal hole effects. On UT day 13 June, mostly
unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected as the coronal
hole effects begin to wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected today, 12 June,
in the mid and low latitude regions. Expect some degradation
of high latitude MUFs today in response to the forecasted active
conditions associated with the approaching coronal hole. Depressions
are expected to be stronger in the Northern Hemisphere regions
compared to the Southern Hemisphere regions during this time
of the year.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 24 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 11 June
and is current for 12-13 Jun. During the past 24 hours (11 June),
minor depression to nearly monthly predicted MUFs were observed
over most parts of Australia. Similar ionospheric conditions
are expected today, 12 June. The outlook of 13-14 June is of
HF conditions to degrade slightly in mid and high latitude regions
of Australia. These conditions are expected after the passage
of anticipated active period associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 35400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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