[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 3 09:30:17 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered regions on the visible disc and
all appear stable, with little change in size or complexity over
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed declined from 410km/s at
00UT to be 330km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain at these levels over the next 24 hours,
after which it is expected to increase on 04Jun due to recurrent
coronal hole effects. The north south component of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between +/-3nT with no lengthy
sustained southward periods. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity
for the next 3 days with the chance of C-class flares.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11111000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 2 11111001
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 0 01001000
Norfolk Island 0 10000000
Gingin 2 12110000
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 1 01011000
Melbourne 2 01121000
Launceston 2 11021000
Hobart 1 01021000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 01020000
Casey 4 03221101
Mawson 5 32121021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 6 Quiet
04 Jun 35 Active to Minor Storm
05 Jun 25 Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions expected for 03Jun. Possible Active to
Minor Storm conditions for 04Jun-05Jun from an expected rise
in the solar wind velocity due to the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a negative polarity, recurrent and equatorial
positioned coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
04 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions expected over
the next 24 hours, with mildly depressed ionospheric support
at times for low latitudes. Periods of disturbed ionospheric
support for high latitudes. Chance of disturbed ionospheric support
and significant MUF depressions for mid to high latitudes on
04Jun-05Jun from anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 0 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
05 Jun 0 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions for Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted monthly
values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions, with notable
disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours. Expected increase in geomagnetic
activity, beginning 04Jun resulting in depressed MUFs of 20-40%
for Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 89300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list