[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 16 issued 2341 UT on 01 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 2 09:41:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours.
The largest event observed was a B7.9 flare at 2235UT from a
yet to be determined region. There are currently 3 numbered regions
on the visible disc and all appear stable, with little change
in size or complexity over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed
declined from 500km/s at 00UT to be 400km/s at the time of this
report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at these levels
over the next 24-48 hours. An expected increase in solar wind
speed is possible late in the UT day of 04Jun due to recurrent
coronal hole effects. The north south component of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between +/-3nT with no lengthy
sustained southward periods. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity
for the next 3 days with the chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 11112211
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 4 11212211
Learmonth 4 11212211
Alice Springs 2 01112200
Norfolk Island 1 01101101
Gingin 3 00112211
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 2 11112100
Melbourne 4 11112211
Launceston 4 11212211
Hobart 3 11112201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 11121200
Casey 8 23223211
Mawson 15 34333233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2132 1334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jun 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions expected for 02Jun-03Jun. Possible Active
to Minor Storm conditions on 04Jun from an expected rise in the
solar wind velocity due to the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent equatorial positioned coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions over the next
2 days with mildly depressed ionospheric support at times for
low to mid latitudes. Periods of disturbed ionospheric support
for high latitudes. Chance of disturbed ionospheric support and
significant MUF depressions for mid to high latitudes on 04Jun
from anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 46
Jul 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Jun 5 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions for Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted monthly
values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions, with notable
disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 2 days. Possible increase in geomagnetic
activity for 04Jun resulting in depressed MUFs of 20-40% for
Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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