[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 31 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 1 09:30:18 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours
with no significant flare events. There are currently 4 numbered
regions on the visible disc. Regions 2550 (N15W42) and 2551 (N04W56)
both had a slight increase in spot size over the last 24 hours,
but both remain <100 millionths. Solar wind speed ranged between
540-440 km/s and is currently 475km/s at the time of this report.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at these levels over the
next 24 hours. The north south component of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between +/-6nT with no lengthy
sustained southward periods. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity
due to a chance for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 9 11322323
Cocos Island 4 11211122
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 9 21322323
Learmonth 8 11221333
Alice Springs 8 11222323
Norfolk Island 6 11321222
Gingin 10 12321333
Camden 9 11322323
Canberra 8 11321323
Melbourne 9 11322323
Launceston 9 11322323
Hobart 9 11322323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 8 10322412
Casey 14 33322334
Mawson 30 35333256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 4332 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 01Jun-03Jun with
chance of isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions over the next
3 days with mildly depressed ionospheric support at times for
low to mid latitudes. Periods of disturbed ionospheric support
for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions for Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted monthly
values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions, with notable
disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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