[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 16 issued 2333 UT on 03 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 4 09:33:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The C1 flare producing
region previously numbered 2544 (N18) is due to return in the
next day or two. Very low to low activity is expected for the
next 3 days. The solar wind speed varied between 280km/s and
340 km/s, currently around 310 km/s. The IMF total strength stayed
below 5 nT, currently around 4 nT. The Bz component was mostly
neutral, dipping to around -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase from late 4-Jun due to an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 01000000
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 0 10000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 0 01000000
Gingin 0 10100000
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Melbourne 0 01000000
Launceston 0 01000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 11100000
Mawson 5 41100002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1100 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 35 Active to Minor Storm
05 Jun 30 Active to Minor Storm
06 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. These conditions are expected
to prevail until a coronal hole high speed wind stream arrives
late on 4-Jun, bringing active and possibly minor storm periods
extending into 5-Jun. Conditions should become more settled 6-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
05 Jun Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
06 Jun Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 4-Jun, with some mildly depressed periods. Disturbed ionospheric
support was observed for high latitudes. An expected increase
in geomagnetic activity is likely to result in disturbed ionospheric
support and significant MUF depressions on 5-6 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 10 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
06 Jun 10 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions were observed for equatorial
and northern Australian regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs
were near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed for
Southern Australia, with disturbed periods in the Antarctic.
Similar conditions are expected on 4-Jun. MUF depressions of
20-40% across Australia are likely 5-6 Jun due to expected geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 73300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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