[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 July 16 issued 2351 UT on 29 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 30 09:51:45 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no flare activity to report. Small region 2570 located at N09E56
is the only numbered sun spot region currently on the visible
disc and appears quiet and stable. Yesterdays equatorial located
disappearing solar filament was confirmed to have produced a
southwestward directed CME visible in LASCO C2 imagery on 28Jul
from 23UT onwards. Further analysis of this CME is being conducted
to determine if it will be geoeffective. Solar wind speed (Vsw)
has been elevated over the last 24 hours, reaching a maximum
of ~640km/s at 0830UT and is currently at 530km/s. Bz, The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between
+/-8nT between 00UT and 06UT after which it decreased in magnitude
to be fluctuating between +/-2nT at the time of this report.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the next
24 hours due to the influence of a high speed solar wind stream.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days
with only slight chance of a C-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 23232221
Cocos Island 8 23221321
Darwin 7 23222221
Townsville 9 23233221
Learmonth 7 23222221
Alice Springs 8 23222321
Norfolk Island 8 23232221
Culgoora 9 23232222
Gingin 11 33232331
Canberra 9 23233221
Launceston 15 34333323
Hobart 11 23233322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
Macquarie Island 11 24332212
Casey 12 33431222
Mawson 38 35544365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 19 3432 2354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 11 Unsettled
31 Jul 7 Quiet
01 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for 30Jul and mostly
Quiet conditions expected for 31Jul-01Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
31 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions across all latitudes for 29Jul
with occasional enhancements at mid latitudes. Continued MUF
depressions are expected across all latitudes for 30-31Jul with
return to near normal conditions for 01Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 25 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of depressed MUF's observed over all regions
during the last 24 hours with notable enhancements for some Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. Improving conditions are expected over
the next 3 days with return to near monthly predicted values
for 01AUg.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 12.5 p/cc Temp: 58600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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