[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 July 16 issued 2350 UT on 28 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 29 09:50:49 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no flare activity to report. An equatorial located disappearing
solar filament close to central meridian was observed in GONG
H-alpha imagery between 14UT-18UT. No earth-directed CMEs observed
in the available SOHO LASCO imagery. Solar wind speed (Vsw) increased
over the UT day due to the contributions of both co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) ahead of a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream. Vsw went from ~330km/s at 00UT to be ~550km/s at
the time of this report. Bz, The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field had notable southward excursions
reaching -7.4nT between 00UT and 08UT and -9.8nT between 15UT
and 18UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
for the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low for the next 3 days with only slight chance of a C-class
flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 22322232
Cocos Island 7 22312221
Darwin 10 23322232
Townsville 10 23322232
Learmonth 11 22422332
Alice Springs 10 23322232
Norfolk Island 9 23321232
Culgoora 8 22322222
Gingin 9 12322332
Canberra 9 22322232
Launceston 14 23333333
Hobart 8 12322232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
Macquarie Island 16 12254332
Casey 11 33222233
Mawson 29 45434354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1100 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 12 Unsettled
30 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 28 July and
is current for 28-29 Jul. Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed
over the last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for 29Jul
with possible Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for
30-31Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
30 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
31 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions across all latitudes for 28Jul.
Continued MUF depressions are expected across all latitudes for
29-31Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 28 July
and is current for 28-29 Jul. Depressed MUF's observed over all
regions during the last 24 hours along with disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected
for 29-31Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 35300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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