[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 July 16 issued 2345 UT on 27 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Jul 28 09:45:49 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no flare activity to report. The sun is currently spotless and 
there were no earth-directed CMEs observed in the available SOHO 
LASCO imagery. Solar wind velocity gradually declined from ~360km/s 
at 00UT to be ~320km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged 
between +5nT and -3nT with no significant sustained southward 
periods. The solar wind speed is currently at background ambient 
levels. An increase in solar wind speed is expected over the 
next 12-24 hours due to the anticipated arrival of a high speed 
solar wind stream from a equatorial located coronal hole. Solar 
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with 
only slight chance of a C-class flare.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001001
      Cocos Island         0   01000001
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           1   11101001
      Learmonth            0   00001000
      Alice Springs        1   11001000
      Norfolk Island       0   01000001
      Culgoora             7   22222222
      Gingin               1   00001002
      Canberra             0   01001000
      Launceston           2   11002001
      Hobart               1   11001001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   10001000
      Casey                3   22200002
      Mawson              12   12101006

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1211 1221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul    14    Unsettled to Active
29 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Unsettled 
to Active conditions expected for 28Jul due to expected arrival 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a equatorial positioned 
coronal hole. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 29-30Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal
29 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair
30 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair

COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions across all latitudes for 27Jul. 
Continued MUF depressions are expected across all latitudes for 
28-29Jul with slow ionospheric recovery beginning on 30Jul.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Jul    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      31
Jul      42
Aug      40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul    15    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jul    20    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Jul    25    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressed MUF observed over all regions during the last 
24 hours along with disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic 
regions. Similar conditions are expected for 28-29Jul due to 
expected geomagnetic activity. Slow ionospheric recovery is expected 
to begin 30Jul.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    23800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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